01 March 2007

How About That Afghanistan?

This is a short piece I wrote awhile back and found how prophetic it was.

Afghanistan--The New Democracy?

Well the Central Asian country of Afghanistan has had its "free and fair" elections. And the winner was Hamid Karzai. THe country must now try and bring stability and peace to a wat torn landscape. The uphill battle will be to give this region its first strong central government. A government that is not influenced by some outside influences--oops--maybe that will not happen right now.

First, let us take good look at the "fair and free" elections. Yes, the people, all the people, had a chance to vote in the elections and by all accounts many did just that. Behind the scenes, America's golden boy Karzai, did all he could to minimize the number of political opponenets. He apparently, he saw the benefit that the 2 party system would provide him. Give the people a minimum of choice and they will vote for the least offensive. It worked! Washungton's boy won! And who did not see that coming?

Now Afghanistan's National Assembly must work together to build a strong government. That will be a pipedream, the tribes, warlords, etc. will not want to work with Karzai. Why? His relationship with Bush will make him a lonely person within the country. THe National Assembly, will see Karzai's relationship with the US as giving away the country to foreeigners. His attempt to gain support and retain it will be only as good as the situation on the ground within the country.

Karzai's presidency will survive only if certain conditions are met--The lives of the Afghans will have to improve, with a war going on I do not see this happening. Because of increase violence his support from the people will be gone and he will have to depend more and more on the US to retain his position. Then there is the Taliban--they were outed out of control by the invasion, but that is well and good but they will return and return with a vengence. When? I wish I could give an accurate prediction--but never fear them will be back!

So, the "free and fair" elections will be of no value within 2 years of their taking place. The Afghanis will be looking at a reign of terror similar to Iraq. The Taliban may be out of sight, but they are far from gone.

Unfortuantely, as with Iraq, voting in an election DOES NOT guarantee democracy. I have said many times before--democracy cannot be given by a force of arms. If the people are not behind the democracy call then all you will have is chaos and another government being propped up by Washington. Karzai is basically, the mayor of Kabul, not the president of all Afghans, the US will have to keep yet another power mad depot in power. Something they have become really good it over the years.


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