21 February 2007

Three States Of Iraq

THe Partitioning Of Iraq?

A question that will be asked over and over until it either occurs or the entire idea is put to bed, for good. When Iraq became a country, it was done arbitarily by the Brits. A map was taken and mostly straight lines were put unto the map and viola we Syria, Jordan, Iraq, et al. No amount of thought was put into the process, other than Kuwait had to be its own country. Why? Well, the al-Sabah family was in bed with the Brits and it was to be their reward for their services to the Crown.

The Kurds were lied to by the world, a homeland was promised and then not so important after the fighting was over. They remain hostile to just about everyone, unless the country happens to be working with them and their concerns.

In Iraq, the Brits screwed up! Within the lines drawn on the map of the region, they incorporated three different factions that had no love for one another. And, believe it or not, they were surprised when independence was met with several years of fighting among these groups.

OK enough history, let us speak of partitionoing of Iraq. After the Bush I war Iraq ws divided into 3 zones, two of which were no fly. Within these zones each faction started consolidating power in the hands of local leaders. Even though Saddam was still in charge, power consolidation was done covertly. The reason these zones were put in was to protect the Kurds to the North and Shi'a in the south.

Then, along came Bush II and his war on terrorism. What a boom! Saddam was taken down and with that came an emboldening of the Kurds and Shi'as. And just take a look at the mess we have going a the presnt time.

There have been those who say that the key to curbing the violence is the formation of three states, each faction will have its space. One major draw back was that the oil reserves werein Kurd and Shi'a territory and that the Sunni would not allow the partitioning to go on. The concern would be that the Sunni would have no bargaining power within the loose federation. So the whole idea has been on the back burner.

WOW! Guess what? A oil reserve has been located in al-Anbar provence near the Syrian border. This now gives the Sunni some clout, something they lacked for awhile. But will this lead to the break up of Iraq? Not right now, but the option will be considered. As the violence continues to grow and the deaths amount up and up and as the refugees continue to stream over all existing borders; something unconventional will have to be considered.

And that consideration will be--partitioning Iraq into three separate entities.

Will this curb the ever grow violence? Not at all, it will however, be a talking point to try and obtain a peaceful Iraq. Once that breaks down, the violence will return and only God knows the outcome.

So the predictions are: Iraq will be partitioned. Peace will be short lived. Violence and civil war will return and more deadly than before.


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