05 February 2007

The New Refugees

The New Refugees

The Middle East in the last 50+ years has seen a wealth of refugees. The most extensive was the Palestinians fleeing their homeland. They went into Jordan, Lebanon, Syria as well as others. After decades of conflict, these refugees have become entrenched in the countries, sometimes not as welcomed guests. Jordan moved against them for fear that they would move against the ruling family. And of course, Palestinians were part of the problem in the civil war in Lebanon. These refugees have been blamed for all sorts of problems, which were not necessarily of their own making. To this day, animosities toward them continues, as well as their dislike for Israel. In other words, these refugees have inadvertently assisted in the continuation of the Israel-Palestine conflict. Sometime they were at fault, others not.

Since the US has invaded and occupied Iraq violence has grown almost daily. As this violence and lack of security grows, the people leave their country to become refugees. All in the search for a little peace and security. THe UN has estinmated the number of refugees so far as 2 million and about a 1000 day leave the country to go to their neighbors, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, etc.

The recieving countries, which are not the richest countries in the region, are having to deal with the influx of refugees, sometimes they are not welcomed. IN the beginning the wealthier Iraqis were leaving, doctors, lawyers, etc. Now average Iraqis are taking their life savings and fleeing the country.

The transportation of these refugees has become a boom industry in Iraq, probably the only industry that is doing well. Taxis, trucks, the like are all being used to take these displaced people to neighboring countries.

These refugee camps, will soon become the recruitment centers for insurgents, just as they were for the Palestinians. The longer the US is in Iraq and the longer the violence persists to more recruits will be available.

What are we looking at? Another conflict along the lines of the Israel-Palestine one. The longer the war in Iraq drags on, the more the disenfranchised look for ways to "get even", for lack of a better term.

Since the conflict with Israel has turned into an institution, there is no way to break the cycle short of a miracle. We are looking at the same occurance for the Iraqis. If the refugees are out of Iraq for 10 years or more, then we will be looking at it becoming an institution and a problem that will be more difficult to control.

The President was given every possible slant to the war in Iraq, except this one. Some of his advisers should be smart enougth to see this problem mushrooming into a major problem for the US and its allies. But as usual for the US leadership, the whole picture is seldom looked at, just the small part that is in front of them at the time. In My opinion, the US is in for another rude awakening.


No comments:

About Me

My photo
The truth is never as obvious as it seems