27 December 2006

How Will An Iranian War Begin?

Well once the play comes to a crecendo, the Saudis will do the US bidding, they will increase production and slash prices; Iran will try to adjust its production to keep up and that will only drain there dwindling supply. Then they will try to do something ill advised which in turn will give the US, who by now has UNSC justification, a reason to attack.

How will it play out? Since the US has ordered two carrier battle groups to the Persian Gulf, some minor incident will set up the action. Or possibly an attack on nuclear facilities by Israel. Or even some possible incident in Iraq that could be linked back to Iran.

The last option is beginning to play out. Iranian officials have been arrested in Iraq. The premise being that they we there for training purposes. This could provoke an Iranian response and then the US can attack on "self-defense". My problem is that with an escalation and a use of force could be a precursor to the use of nukes.

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